the electoral college picture

[masterofNone]

california has always been left of center. in fact they're further right now than they've ever been. i mean, new york was ground zero and they're still going left. so was D.C. and you couldn't get them to vote republican if you threatened them with a knife. i don't think that matters.

[Smartypants]

Meanwhile, California is extremely conservative, believe it or not. This is Reagan country. San Francisco and Berkeley get the publicity, but the attitudes in these two cities are not representative of the state as a whole, or even the greater Bay Area.

It's a mistake to equate liberal Americans' politics or antiwar beliefs with a lack of anger or injury over the attacks in NY and Washington. The rifts here between Democrats and Republicans, or liberals and conservatives, have little to do with -- and are much bigger than -- the attacks of September 11.

(Also, bear in mind that one of those planes was headed to San Francisco, so you might say we are among those affected "more." And my clients are nearly all in financial services, and there is not ONE here in SF that didn't know someone killed in the World Trade Center attacks.)

Maybe your caller's distance -- physically and emotionally -- affects his own opinion, but it's certainly not typical as far as I know.

[Deviate]

Nebraska strong for Bush? whouda thunkit?

[Smartypants]

Oh maaaan ... I just looked at the map and it is WAY too close for comfort in California.

There is an optimism among many liberals that because the polling for these things is usually only of "likely voters" (e.g., those that have voted in four of the last four elections) the high polarization of the country will be driving new and infrequent voters who weren't included -- to the real polls in Nov., resulting in a suprise landslide. (Yah! Well, it doesn't hurt to hope! )

[madasacutsnake]

It's a mistake to equate liberal Americans' politics or antiwar beliefs with a lack of anger or injury over the attacks in NY and Washington.

I thought it might have been off the mark.

There is an optimism among many liberals that because the polling for these things is usually only of "likely voters" (e.g., those that have voted in four of the last four elections) the high polarization of the country will be driving new and infrequent voters who weren't included -- to the real polls in Nov., resulting in a suprise landslide. (Yah! Well, it doesn't hurt to hope! )

The inference being that the infrequent voters will vote left as probably nothing short of a WMD up the butt would entice some of the flag waving, I heart America Bushites to the polling booth?

Oh maaaan ... I just looked at the map and it is WAY too close for comfort in California.

I looked everywhere for the California/Nebraska border. Read slower, Snake.

[Smartypants]

Originally posted by madasacutsnake
The inference being that the infrequent voters will vote left as probably nothing short of a WMD up the butt would entice some of the flag waving, I heart America Bushites to the polling booth?

You're half right. History shows conservatives as more consistently likely to vote -- they need little encouragement. (It's not illegal to stay home on election day here as it is in Australia. ) But yes, voter drives consistently have benefited the Democrats because unlikely voters, if they vote, will likely vote Democratic.

What's interesting, is that because they are an apathetic bunch, negative campaigning has been said to disgust and alienate more Democratic voters as much as voters drives encourage them (maybe more). In this election, those that plan to vote for Bush are decided already, and no campaigning is going to change any of their minds; these latest attacks on Kerry about his military service, while one would think they would piss off a lot of Bush-supporting veterans, are more likely to make the apathetic voters (i.e., likely to vote for Kerry) stay home. The negative campaigning, while not winning people over to Bush's side, can bring him victory from a smaller overall number of votes.

Pretty disgusting, no? It's so horribly cynical, and completely to be expected. Bush can't come right out and say, "Do not vote November 2." That would be horribly "un-American" of him. But he can achieve the same results by making people completely fed up with the whole election process.

*shiver*

[madasacutsnake]

From the Washington Report:

It is disconcerting for me to listen to the president’s speeches. I get the unsettling feeling that the man inhabits another world in which things are the exact opposite of how they seem to me. Of course, I may be the one whose perspective is askew. Unlike Bush, I cannot claim that the Almighty has licensed my position. Yet I fear that time will tell in favor of my view of the matter—a view shared, of course, by most people on the planet, indeed, by nearly everybody who has not been bribed, intimidated, or blinded by partisan loyalty to the Bush administration. For now, this difference of views might seem to be nothing more than that—just one man’s opinion jousting with another’s—but reality has a way of passing definite judgment, and I will not be surprised if Bush’s pronouncements ultimately come to be seen as having no more substance than a bad dream.

[Smartypants]

Keep your fingers crossed.

[nycwriters]

Oh man. Now it says "nobody is going to win" Kerry and Bush are tied in three critical states.

There's an awful lot of red on this map. But there was an awful lot of blue during the Dem Convention.

One can only hope it'll all come out ok in the end.

[nycwriters]

crap.

hope those numbers change.

[amfromme]

I thought this thread needed a bump. It was getting too far down the list.

It looks like a pretty even heat today. I am looking forward to more recent results from Zogby. I think if you take a look at the information from this group it has been more accurate and reliable than others.

Ohio is still a mystery(despite it's solid red color) these days as their troubles with unemployment continue. I'm sure there will come a day that a president will be elected without winning this state. Could it be this election? Pay close attention to Ohio and Michigan. There will be changes in these states soon. I understand that the residents of these states are being pummeled with campaign advertising on an unprecidented level. Living here in California it is easy to forget that the battle rages in the states that can make and break the candidates. We are all locked up on the west coast I think.

Of course a better idea of how it's all playing out might come from the book makers in Las Vegas. I'm sure they are taking bets.

On a side note, are some of you out there in voting land experiencing large amounts of political advertising? I have not seen ad one here in the north bay area of California. I guess it's a lost cause for the republicans and a sure thing for the dems. Why waste the campaign money? (as if wasting money was a problem for any of them)


AMF

[Smartypants]

It is sort of eerie here, isn't it -- the absolute absence of campaign advertising?

Yet in the past few days there have been some very positive signs. For one thing, the silence of the press seems to be less. Today in the Washington Post, a lead story talked about all of Bush's equivocating and how ironic it is that it's Kerry who wears the "flip-flop' label. It actually lists all the times Bush has reversed himself!

And there has been scathing response in the major papers about W's appearance before the U.N.

This is also circulating, and it's something I believe wholeheartedly -- that the polls are just completely midleading, and it's time to start thinking more positively (even if the Kerry campaign can't).

Michael Moore says it better than I can:


----------------

Put Away Your Hankies...a message from Michael Moore

9/20/04

Dear Friends,

Enough of the handwringing! Enough of the doomsaying! Do I have to come there and personally calm you down? Stop with all the defeatism, OK? Bush IS a goner -- IF we all just quit our whining and bellyaching and stop shaking like a bunch of nervous ninnies. Geez, this is embarrassing! The Republicans are laughing at us. Do you ever see them cry, "Oh, it's all over! We are finished! Bush can't win! Waaaaaa!" Hell no. It's never over for them until the last ballot is shredded. They are never finished -- they just keeping moving forward like sharks that never sleep, always pushing, pulling, kicking, blocking, lying.

They are relentless and that is why we secretly admire them -- they just simply never, ever give up. Only 30% of the country calls itself "Republican," yet the Republicans own it all -- the White House, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court and the majority of the governorships. How do you think they've been able to pull that off considering they are a minority? It's because they eat you and me and every other liberal for breakfast and then spend the rest of the day wreaking havoc on the planet.Look at us -- what a bunch of crybabies.

Bush gets a bounce after his convention and you would have thought the Germans had run through Poland again. The Bushies are coming, the Bushies are coming! Yes, they caught Kerry asleep on the Swift Boat thing. Yes, they found the frequency in Dan Rather and ran with it. Suddenly it's like, "THE END IS NEAR! THE SKY IS FALLING!" No, it is not. If I hear one more person tell me how lousy a candidate Kerry is and how he can't win... Dammit, of COURSE he's a lousy candidate -- he's a Democrat, for heavens sake! That party is so pathetic, they even lose the elections they win! What were you expecting, Bruce Springsteen heading up the ticket? Bruce would make a helluva president, but guys like him don't run -- and neither do you or I. People like Kerry run.

Yes, OF COURSE any of us would have run a better, smarter, kick-ass campaign. Of course we would have smacked each and every one of those phony swifty boaty bastards down. But WE are not running for president -- Kerry is. So quit complaining and work with what we have. Oprah just gave 300 women a... Pontiac! Did you see any of them frowning and moaning and screaming, "Oh God, NOT a friggin' Pontiac!" Of course not, they were happy. The Pontiacs all had four wheels, an engine and a gas pedal. You want more than that, well, I can't help you. I had a Pontiac once and it lasted a good year. And it was a VERY good year.

My friends, it is time for a reality check.

1. The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

2. Kerry has brought in the Clinton A-team. Instead of shunning Clinton (as Gore did), Kerry has decided to not make that mistake.

3. Traveling around the country, as I've been doing, I gotta tell ya, there is a hell of a lot of unrest out there. Much of it is not being captured by the mainstream press. But it is simmering and it is real. Do not let those well-produced Bush rallies of angry white people scare you. Turn off the TV! (Except Jon Stewart and Bill Moyers -- everything else is just a sugar-coated lie).

4. Conventional wisdom says if the election is decided on "9/11" (the fear of terrorism), Bush wins. But if it is decided on the job we are doing in Iraq, then Bush loses. And folks, that "job," you might have noticed, has descended into the third level of a hell we used to call Vietnam. There is no way out. It is a full-blown mess of a quagmire and the body bags will sadly only mount higher. Regardless of what Kerry meant by his original war vote, he ain't the one who sent those kids to their deaths -- and Mr. and Mrs. Middle America knows it. Had Bush bothered to show up when he was in the "service" he might have somewhat of a clue as to how to recognize an immoral war that cannot be "won." All he has delivered to Iraq was that plasticized turkey last Thanksgiving. It is this failure of monumental proportions that is going to cook his goose come this November.

So, do not despair. All is not over. Far from it. The Bush people need you to believe that it is over. They need you to slump back into your easy chair and feel that sick pain in your gut as you contemplate another four years of George W. Bush. They need you to wish we had a candidate who didn't windsurf and who was just as smart as we were when WE knew Bush was lying about WMD and Saddam planning 9/11. It's like Karl Rove is hypnotizing you -- "Kerry voted for the war...Kerry voted for the war...Kerrrrrryyy vooootted fooooor theeee warrrrrrrrrr..." Yes...Yes...Yesssss....He did! HE DID! No sense in fighting now...what I need is sleep...sleeep...sleeeeeeppppp...

WAKE UP! The majority are with us! More than half of all Americans are pro-choice, want stronger environmental laws, are appalled that assault weapons are back on the street -- and 54% now believe the war is wrong. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM OF ANY OF THIS -- YOU JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM A RAY OF HOPE AND A RIDE TO THE POLLS. CAN YOU DO THAT? WILL YOU DO THAT?Just for me, please?

Buck up. The country is almost back in our hands. Not another negative word until Nov. 3rd! Then you can bitch all you want about how you wish Kerry was still that long-haired kid who once had the courage to stand up for something. Personally, I think that kid is still inside him. Instead of the wailing and gnashing of your teeth, why not hold out a hand to him and help the inner soldier/protester come out and defeat the forces of evil we now so desperately face. Do we have any other choice?

Yours,

Michael Moore

[dickieC]

Yes, www.electoral-vote.com is a great website, but take care always to read the polling methodology notes that the webmaster always puts in. Especially the notes about the Strategic Vision polls which are apparently heavily Republican-biased. (Technical note: when weighting the sample to produce their predictions, they overstate the degree of Republican identifiers in the electorate).

The polling since the debates seems to be showing that Kerry has firmed up some states that were "barely Kerry" so that they are now "weak Kerry" while Bush's support in "weak Bush" states has been moving towards "barely Bush". Any state shown with a white centre on the map is essentially unpredicable/too close to call.

If I had the time, I'd write to every media outlet that published national voting intentions and tell them to stop publishing such misleading bullshit. ONLY the electoral college count matters. Please ignore any national vote polling figures.

If I were a Floridian, I would be going insane at the thought that there are some electronic voting machines that deliberately do not keep a paper record for recounts, despite that being a Congressional requirement. I'm increasingly of the opinion that the Bush dynasty has a master plan to steal Florida again.

William Hill, the UK online bookmakers, are giving 20/1 on Bush and Kerry getting 269 votes each.

[Gatsby]

The U.S. needs to do away with the electoral college, and the BCS needs to go to playoffs.

'Nuff said.