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October 20, 2008

polling data for junkies

i'm sure you know about this already...but FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right is an excellent blog on election polling, created by a baseball statistician :: the charts and graphs that litter the page aren't explained well and can be frustrating to look at, but his blog entries regularly provide novel insight into the numbers strategies in this election...

what sites are you using to feed your election info habits?

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Comments (14)

Definitely pollster.com. I subscribe to the RSS feed and use it to go check their mega chart whenever enough updates build up.

Posted by: MikeD at October 20, 2008 1:41 PM


Posted by: Kristina B at October 20, 2008 1:55 PM

Real Clear Politics gives an easy to understand result and full breakdown by state and show the day-to-day changes.


Posted by: Jack at October 20, 2008 2:59 PM


Same result as the mathematical modelling of fivethirtyeight, but with a simpler method, and focused on today rather than election day...

Posted by: Kirsi at October 20, 2008 3:15 PM


But I'm beginning to question the wisdom of marketplaces.

Posted by: Tom Stohlman at October 20, 2008 3:21 PM

Beware - the GOP has been filing law suits all over the country to pull people off the voting rolls.

Many people who have lost their houses in this economic melt down are also being pulled off the roll, since they have had to move and unable to update and register in their new district.

Still others are being pulled off because they have a similar name to someone who may not be eligible to vote, i.e. in prison.

Citizens are being encouraged to bring a video camera/phone to the polls and document any problems they may encounter.

Yes, this is Florida all over again folks, only nation wide.

Vote for who you think is the best candidate, vote your conscience, but be prepared and most of all be Vigilant!

Posted by: nader at October 20, 2008 4:33 PM


Posted by: Tony at October 20, 2008 6:29 PM

I don't follow polls too closely because I get wrankled. Most of my info comes from The Daily Show and peeks at CNN and MSNBC with an occasional stop at fox to see if they might be turning against their boy.

I like to check youtube to see what people are creating about the election, too. A friend sent me a host of wonderful videos today and I'd like to share a few them here if I may, Ze:

Viva Obama (mariachi version), http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

Respondele a Obama, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ycu0sy5RW8

There’s No One as Irish as Barak Obama, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EADUQWKoVek

Got my decider t-shirt today! Who's the decider now? ME!

Posted by: jeano at October 21, 2008 1:00 AM

I take a look at realclearpolitics.com about 5 times a day. It's a disease.

And fivethirtyeight.com very much satisfies the math major in me. Together, these two are all I need.

Posted by: Joe Moore at October 21, 2008 1:46 AM

Whatever confirms my preferred worldview, making me feel safe and warm and validated, and wrapped in a warm blankie. So yeah, fivethirtyeight, followed by cute overload.

Posted by: jack at October 21, 2008 5:57 PM

This is one where I use the old school techniques. I pay attention to the 6:00 AM television ads and switch up stations a few times a week. Then I drive to the places where I expect to see certain signs and look for out of place signs. Then I go to convenient stores and places where I need to wait for things like Chinese food etc. I don't hit the pubs as that's seldom accurate. But I do hit places old folks go. Places like pumpkin farms on busy days will often supply information. I listen and look at car signs.

This year I thought of going to places only white people go to listen. In the past in all white groupings an odd thing happens and someone says something they wouldn't in non-white company. I think cultural clubs would be excellent for this but I haven't tried to get in to the one across the street: The Polish American Club. I need to be escorted by a member or be able to prove Polish heritage. I am waiting for a report back from a lad I know who is a member to get his lowdown.

I do this about once or twice a week with a friend. I call my sisters and friends in different areas of the state and see if they will do something similar while on errands.

It's not exact of course but it hasn't failed me yet in predicting accurately.

Right now OH is a toss up but there have been Obama signs in areas where I did not expect to see them.

Posted by: boo at October 21, 2008 7:55 PM

I get mine from BBC World News and Al Jazeera. They have a more distant perspective, which sometimes makes it more in-focus.

Posted by: courtle at October 22, 2008 10:29 AM

I love fivethirtyeight.com ! Nate is great. Some of the geek chart stuff is explained in early posts. RCP skews right. Read Nate on their practices and his attempts to get clarification.

As for other sites, I have to say I agree with jack about the need to "feel safe, warm, validated and wrapped in warm blankie." I live in battleground Florida and dealing with the bombardment of political ads and news about the state, well -- it's really stressful. MSNBC and Fox News are like alternate universes. Lots of nutball screamers on the internet too. Wahhhhhh! Leave me alone!

Voting today relieved some of my anxiety, but now I'm worried about you.


Posted by: efemmeral at October 22, 2008 1:03 PM

I like RCP for sort of a "worst case" viewpoint, DKos & 538 for what I hope is more realistic.
Christian Séance Monitor has a unique page up- lots of pretty info- not sure what to make of all of it yet:

Posted by: sdrDusty at October 22, 2008 6:59 PM

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